Hormuz Hits 12 Strategic Commodities – Why Prices Don’t Reveal the Crisis’s Scale

Behind the prices that fell after the peak of turmoil, shipment volumes are far lower than usual for oil, gas, fertilizers, and petrochemical products. This is the gap that a report from the International Trade Center, covered by Nadeem Al‑Malah in an economic segment on Al Jazeera, highlighted, showing that the value of trade in dollars can conceal an actual shortage of goods when prices rise while volumes fall.

The world has traditionally viewed the Strait of Hormuz as an energy chokepoint, but the maritime corridor also connects markets that rely on fertilizers and industrial materials. According to the study, about 33.3% of global urea trade passes through it, along with shipments of methanol, ammonia, aluminum, and other materials that feed into extensive production and manufacturing chains.

However, alternatives were not a complete solution. Suppliers outside the region increased their shipments for 10 of the 12 commodities covered by the study, but their capacity was insufficient to fill the supply gap on a large scale. The most evident compensation was in ammonia and polypropylene, while gaps remained large for other goods, including gas and urea.

Urea is a nitrogen fertilizer essential for boosting the productivity of many crops. Therefore, a decline in its shipments not only affects trading companies or ports but also threatens to raise input costs for farmers in importing countries, especially when supply difficulties coincide with planting seasons. Here the paradox emerges that makes urea the clearest case in the Hormuz story: volumes fell sharply, yet the price later dropped.

The problem does not end with the availability of shipments or their prices. During periods of concern in local markets, producing countries tend to restrict exports or subject them to licensing, aiming to protect domestic supplies. However, this behavior transfers the shock from the sea to international markets, making it harder for importing countries to obtain their needs.

According to the report from the World Trade Organization, export restrictions and licensing could affect up to 15% of global fertilizer trade. This figure represents the maximum potential trade that could be impacted, not the actual loss amount. Its economic implication is clear: the more the movement of goods in Hormuz shrinks and the wider the trade restrictions in other countries, the fewer options importers have and the higher their costs.