Why might the United States fail to achieve the objectives of its economic war against Iran?

About six months ago, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran to achieve a set of strategic objectives, including regime change in Tehran and the complete elimination of Iran’s nuclear program. However, Washington has so far failed to achieve these goals; instead, the war has caused widespread economic damage, disrupting navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and driving a sharp rise in oil and gas prices.

Consequently, the United States decided to shift to economic pressure to force Iran to submit to its demands. Treasury Secretary Scott Biesant announced the start of an unprecedented economic assault, describing it as an “economic D‑Day,” and dubbed the operation the “Economic Outcast” to reflect the aim of U.S. sanctions: to strangle Iran’s economy and isolate it from the global economy.

The ongoing economic pressure on Iran is further heightening uncertainty in energy markets, according to Bret Erickson, managing director of Obsidian Risk Advisers, speaking to the U.S. magazine *Politico*. He added that this pressure demonstrates that Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz, contrary to what the Trump administration claims, and therefore it is being pressured to change its policy.

*Politico* noted that the economic attack announced by Treasury Secretary Biesant will, at best, prolong the war and sustain turbulence in energy markets. In the worst case, *Politico* warned, attempts to isolate Iran from the global economy could push its leaders to intensify attacks on the region’s critical energy infrastructure.

If the U.S. administration avoids imposing sanctions on Chinese banks and prefers not to escalate the trade confrontation with China—after backing off from it last year—this casts doubt on the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions on Iran as long as China, Iran’s most important economic backer, remains indifferent. This skepticism is reinforced by Tehran’s decades‑long experience in coping with and adapting to U.S. sanctions.

In this context, it is clear that this economic war will bring no benefit to the American consumer, who has been suffering from higher gasoline prices since the conflict began. The British newspaper *The Independent* expects the fallout from the Iran war to influence U.S. voters in the upcoming midterm congressional elections in November, as they may express disappointment with the war, and Congress could adopt a different stance after the elections.